The 2025-26 Mid-Season Report Card: Who's Got Snow, Who's Praying for It

We're 65 days into the 2025-26 season. The holidays are done, January's been... weird, and it's time to do what we do best here at SnowRadar: ignore the vibes and look at the actual numbers.

We pulled snow data for every resort in our system as of January 27, 2026. Here's what's going on.

The Short Version: It's Below Average (But Don't Panic Yet)

Most Western resorts are tracking below their 5-year snowfall averages at this point. Not great.

Let's use Vail as our canary in the coal mine:

65 inches through 65 days. Exactly 1.00 inches per day. The 5-year average end-of-season rate is 1.80. That's 44% below pace.

But -- and this is the important part -- snowfall isn't linear. January through March typically accounts for 60-70% of Colorado's total seasonal snow. One big February storm cycle could completely flip the script.

What Things Actually Look Like Right Now

As of January 27, the report cards:

Vail (Ski Area 482)

• Base Depth: 232 cm (91") -- honestly pretty solid
• Runs Open: 169 / 277 (61%)
• Lifts Open: 20 / 33 (61%)
• Acres Open: 1,667 / 5,317 (31%)
• Status: Open ✅

That 91-inch base looks healthy and it IS healthy -- on groomed runs. Vail's 880+ snow guns covering ~350 acres are doing serious work right now. The groomed stuff is skiing great.

But that 31% acreage number? That's the truth. The Back Bowls and Blue Sky Basin need natural snow to open, and with only 65 inches for the season, a lot of that high-alpine terrain is still too thin. The front side is fine. The back side is waiting.

The Base Depth Thing People Get Wrong

Here's something that trips people up: base depth and total snowfall don't track the way you'd think.

A resort can have a deep base on low snowfall if:

1. Cold temps keep what's there from melting (no melt-freeze cycles eating the base)
2. Snowmaking pads the coverage on key terrain
3. Wind loading moves snow from exposed ridges into gullies and north faces

And the opposite -- a high-snowfall year with warm spells can leave shallow bases because the snow keeps coming and going.

This is why we track both numbers separately. Base depth = how's today. Snowfall total = how's the season trending.

Year-Over-Year: The Trend Lines

Vail's 5-Year Snowfall Trajectory

The 5-year average final total is 295 inches. Vail needs 230 more inches over roughly 85 remaining days to hit that. That's 2.7 inches per day. Aggressive? Sure. Impossible? No. It would take a genuine pattern flip to active Pacific flow, but 2022-23 had a slow start and then went absolutely nuclear in January through March. It happens.

Where Our Data Comes From (And Where It Falls Short)

We aggregate data from resort snow reports, ski industry databases, and NWS weather stations. Here's what we're working with:

Solid data:

• Base depth (cm) -- ski patrol reports daily
• Runs/lifts open -- real operational counts
• Season snowfall totals -- aggregated from daily reports
• Monthly breakdowns -- great for spotting trends
• Historical season data -- multiple years for comparison

Gaps and weirdness:

• 24h/48h/7d snowfall -- frequently missing. Despite being the thing everyone actually wants to know.
• Surface conditions -- inconsistently reported across resorts
• Summit depth -- frequently unavailable. Base depth is more reliable.

Standard stuff for aggregated ski data. Resorts report inconsistently and no single source catches everything. We cross-reference with direct resort reports and NWS data when we can.

Resort-by-Resort: The Quick Takes

Who's Skiing Well 🟢

Based on base depth vs. typical January numbers:

Alta (Resort ID 1)

• Base: 33cm base / 56cm summit
• 57 runs open
• Packed powder base, variable conditions up top
• Alta being Alta. The Wasatch convergence zone funnels moisture into Little Cottonwood like clockwork -- that's real atmospheric physics, not marketing copy.

Who's Struggling 🔴

We won't pile on specific resorts here (we'll save that for the full rankings), but several Pacific Northwest spots are having a rough go. A persistent ridge has been blocking moisture from reaching the Cascades. When the jet stream sits that far north, the PNW just... doesn't get storms.

The Interesting Ones 🟡

European Resorts

The Alps are having a totally different season. Persistent northwesterly flow has been dumping on the northern Alps. Spots like Alta Badia with 1,454m vertical and 130km of terrain are reporting excellent conditions while half the US West is staring at the sky.

The Snowmaking Elephant in the Room

Here's the story nobody's really talking about: snowmaking is hiding how slow this start has been at basically every major resort.

Modern snow guns are ridiculously good. The latest TechnoAlpin and SMI fan guns can make snow at temps as warm as -2°C (28°F), and a single gun covers an acre in 12-16 hours. Resorts like Vail with 800+ guns can open terrain on a schedule that's almost completely independent of actual weather.

Which creates this weird disconnect where a resort reports "91-inch base, 61% of runs open" and it sounds solid -- until you realize the base is ~70% manufactured and the ungroomed terrain is barely skiable.

For data nerds, acres open percentage is the most honest metric. It captures groomed AND ungroomed terrain, and you can't fake it with snowmaking.

That 30-point gap between runs (61%) and acres (31%) tells you exactly how snowmaking-dependent things are right now. In a big year, both numbers converge toward 90%+. We're not there.

Three Scenarios for the Rest of Winter

🟢 The Dream: Pattern Flips

El Niño strengthens, jet stream dips south, February and March deliver 150-200% of average snowfall. Resorts finish near or above the 5-year average. It's happened before -- 2022-23 had a sleepy early season then went off. We're hoping.

🟡 The Likely: We Muddle Through

Current pattern sticks around with occasional disruptions. Resorts finish 15-25% below average. Back bowls and high-alpine terrain opens late in February, closes early in March. Skiable season, just not one you'll tell stories about.

🔴 The Bummer: Ridge Holds

The Pacific blocking ridge strengthens and the storm track stays pinned to BC and Alaska. Western US finishes 30-40% below average with early closures. Climate scientists are watching this pattern -- it's consistent with certain warming projections, which is a conversation for another day.

Bottom Line

Is 2025-26 a bad season? Not yet. It's a slow season with solid base depths (thank you, snowmaking) and plenty of runway left. The data says "below average but recoverable." February is going to tell us everything.

We're updating these numbers every Monday. Or just set up SnowRadar alerts and we'll ping you when the pattern flips.

The mountains aren't going anywhere. The data doesn't lie. And there's a lot of winter left.

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Historical snowfall covers 2021-2026 seasons. All base depths as of January 27, 2026. We update conditions daily during ski season.