Week Ahead: The Last 23 Standing

We're in the final stretch of what's been, by any measure, the ugliest ski season in half a century. And the numbers tell the story better than any adjective: just 23 ski resorts remain open across the entire American West.

Twenty-three. Out of hundreds.

This week brings a rare mid-April storm for Utah, a deadline on our biggest prediction market of the season, and two pieces of investigative journalism that connect the dots between the season we just suffered through and the industry that's supposed to be protecting it.

Utah Gets a Gift

While most of the West watches snowpack evaporate, the Wasatch is about to get a late-season refresh. A storm cycle running Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon is targeting the upper Cottonwood Canyons:

• Alta: 5-9 inches
• Snowbird: 5-8 inches
• Brighton: 5-7 inches
• Solitude: 4-7 inches

Snow starts warm and wind-affected, then improves Monday night as colder air settles in. Tuesday should be the better ski day. If you're anywhere near Salt Lake, this is the week -- because there aren't many weeks left.

We've opened prediction markets for Alta (O/U 7"), Snowbird (O/U 6.5"), and Brighton (O/U 6") if you want to put your forecast where your mouth is.

The Closing Day Countdown

Here's who's still standing, state by state, and when they're calling it:

Gone by next weekend (April 14-19):

Arizona Snowbowl wraps up with bonus days Monday-Tuesday and then it's done. Palisades Tahoe is hanging on "conditions dependent" through mid-April. And Saturday, April 19 is a mass closing day -- Kirkwood, Mt. Rose (weekends only), Aspen Mountain, Winter Park, Grand Targhee, Solitude, Mt. Baker, Crystal Mountain, and White Pass all pull the plug.

Making it to late April:

Copper Mountain, Loveland, Alta, Big Sky (weekends only), Brian Head, and Alyeska are all targeting April 26.

The survivors (May and beyond):

A-Basin and Breckenridge are playing it by ear -- "as late as possible, conditions permitting." Brighton and Snowbird have tickets through May 3, with Snowbird doing weekends through Memorial Day. Mammoth Mountain is still targeting May 25. And Timberline in Oregon is aiming for July 19, though low snowpack may cut the summer season short.

The absences are deafening. No Jackson Hole. No Deer Valley. No Steamboat, Telluride, Park City, or Whistler. The list of who's gone is longer than who's left.

The Forgotten Coup

The best piece of ski journalism this week comes from John LaConte at The Lever, covered by KUNC: the story of how a Colorado senator tried to prevent ski resort monopolies in the 1970s -- and how the industry killed the bill.

The short version: In 1975, Aspen and Vail tried to raise lift tickets from $10 to $12 mid-season. A state attorney named Tony Accetta cried price-fixing. Senator Floyd Haskell (D-CO) looked into it, realized the ski industry could become a monopoly operating on public land, and drafted a reform bill that would have regulated pricing, required congressional oversight of leases, and clarified the Forest Service's authority.

The ski industry initially agreed to negotiate -- more lease security for them in exchange for consumer protections. Then Joseph Coors put Haskell on his political hit list. Haskell lost his seat. The reform bill died.

A decade later, Senator Malcolm Wallop (R-WY) resurrected it -- but stripped out every consumer protection and kept only the deregulation. The 1986 version allowed unlimited 40-year leases with no congressional oversight. That's the law that paved the way for Vail Resorts to hold 36 Forest Service permits today.

The problems Haskell predicted in 1975 -- monopoly pricing, company-town dynamics, consumers with no leverage -- are exactly what the antitrust lawsuit filed last month alleges. Fifty years of history in one bill that never passed.

Read the KUNC piece. Then look at your $356 Vail day ticket. Then look at it again.

85% of Ski Workers Are "Alarmed" About Climate

New research from the University of New Hampshire, published today, found that 85% of New Hampshire ski professionals are either "alarmed" or "concerned" about climate change. The national average is 54%. More than half said their industry isn't doing enough about it.

This pairs grimly with what's happening in Oregon. OPB reported this weekend that Mt. Hood Meadows is closing weeks early after Oregon tied its record for warmest winter ever. Attendance dropped 25%. Capital projects -- a new snowcat, a Nordic center -- are shelved indefinitely.

The mountain's grooming manager pointed at an 8-foot rock jutting out of thin snow that should be completely buried. "This is definitely a rough season," she said. "Some of the old timers said it's probably the most challenging season they've had."

New Hampshire's ski industry generates $278.8 million per season and supports 16,000 jobs. By century's end, UNH researchers say the state could lose 40-70% of its skiable days. Oregon's story is the same. The people who actually work on these mountains know exactly what's happening. The question is whether the companies that own them -- the ones who just raised pass prices 37-40% -- will listen.

Mammoth Market: Final Call

Our Mammoth Mountain Season Total prediction market closes Tuesday, April 15 at midnight. The line is 300 inches.

Mammoth is currently sitting at roughly 72% of its normal seasonal snowfall -- somewhere around 250-260 inches. There are maybe 6-7 more inches in the forecast over the next five days. It's not enough.

The UNDER looks locked unless Mammoth gets a miracle dump in the next 48 hours. This market has been the canary in the coal mine for the whole season. Back when we set the 300" line, it seemed conservative for a resort that averages 400 inches. In the worst snow year in 50 years, even conservative looks generous.

What to Watch

• Monday-Tuesday: Utah storm cycle. Best snow Monday night into Tuesday. Get to the Cottonwoods if you can.
• Tuesday April 15: Mammoth prediction market closes. Last chance to call your shot.
• Saturday April 19: Mass closing day. Aspen Mountain, Winter Park, Grand Targhee, Mt. Baker, Crystal Mountain, Kirkwood, and more all shut down.
• The antitrust case: The KUNC / Lever story adds 50 years of historical context. If a failed 1975 reform bill predicted exactly where we are today, that's ammunition for regulation -- or at least for the class-action lawyers.
• Climate reality: Between the UNH survey, Oregon closures, and Colorado's worst-ever snowpack, the evidence is piling up faster than the snow isn't.

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The season isn't over yet -- but you can count the remaining ski days on two hands. Check who's still open and make your predictions while there's still snow to bet on.