Week Ahead: The Final Countdown

That sound you heard yesterday was the season hitting the floor.

Sunday, April 26 was the second-biggest closing day of the month. Alta wrapped its 88th season -- in a snowstorm, because of course. Big Sky shut down. Loveland called it. Crystal Mountain and Alyeska flipped the switches. Brian Head skied its last run.

We went from 15 open western resorts to roughly seven or eight overnight. That's not a ski industry. That's a support group.

What's Still Standing

Here's the full list of survivors, and it won't take long:

Closing this Sunday, May 3:

• Arapahoe Basin (CO) -- 194 days on snow this season, the longest in the state. Lift tickets just dropped to $39. That's not a typo. Denim Day, Swimwear Day, May the 4th (one day early) -- they're going out weird, and we respect it.
• Copper Mountain (CO) -- Extended for the fourth straight year. Tickets are $49 starting today. Friday May 1 they're doing after-hours laps until 7 PM with a DJ set at the Aerie. If Colorado ski season has to end, at least it ends with a party.

Playing it by ear:

• Snowbird (UT) -- Daily through May 3, weekends through May 25. Got hammered by the same storm that gave Alta a powder-day farewell. Our prediction markets have Snowbird, Alta, and Brighton Apr 26-28 storm totals still pending -- we'll resolve those midweek when the snow settles.
• Brighton (UT) -- Closing May 3.

The long game:

• Mammoth Mountain (CA) -- Open through at least Memorial Day (May 25). More on this below, because Mammoth is having a completely different season than the rest of us.
• Killington (VT) -- The Beast of the East is running the upgraded Superstar lift and hoping to make Memorial Day. No official closing date, which in Killington language means "we'll close when we're good and ready."
• Timberline (OR) -- Still aiming for a July close, though the low-snowpack year may cut summer short.

That's it. Seven resorts. In a normal year, we'd still have 30+ spinning lifts from Vermont to British Columbia. This year, the holdouts fit on a Post-it note.

Colorado's Last Week

This deserves its own section, because Colorado going dark hits different.

After Loveland shut down yesterday, the state is down to two: A-Basin and Copper. Both close May 3. One week from today, there will be zero operating ski resorts in Colorado. In a state with 32 ski areas. In a state whose license plates literally say "Ski Country USA."

A-Basin is leaning into the absurdity. At $39 a ticket, they're practically paying you to show up. Their May-days tradition is legendary -- themed costume days, live music, parking lot tailgates that go harder than most festivals. If you're within driving distance of I-70, this is your last call. Literally.

Copper's going the party route too. $49 tickets, a closing-week DJ series, and those May 1 after-hours laps feel like a proper send-off for a season that never really showed up.

Breckenridge already had its encore -- a surprise one-day reopening last Saturday for the "Peaks and Beats" event on Peak 8. They'd officially closed April 19, then flipped the switch one more time because the late snow made it possible. That's the kind of season this has been: resorts closing, reopening, closing again, and everyone pretending it's fine.

Mammoth Is Living in a Different Timeline

While the rest of the West was holding funerals, Mammoth Mountain was getting 46 inches of snow in April. Nearly four feet. In a month when most resorts were posting closing-day selfies on bare grass.

The latest dump -- 12-16 inches in 24 hours -- brought conditions back to mid-winter territory. 100+ trails open. Fresh surfaces. North-facing aspects holding winter-grade snow well into the afternoon. If you didn't know the date, you'd guess February.

Mammoth confirmed it'll stay open through Memorial Day (May 25), and honestly, with this kind of late-season production, they might push further. The resort's elevation advantage -- 11,053 feet at the summit -- means April snow sticks instead of melting on contact like it does at lower mountains.

This is what makes Mammoth, Mammoth. The "second season" isn't marketing. It's a real meteorological phenomenon where spring Pacific storms deliver more reliable snowfall than the stop-and-start winter pattern. This year, it's been more dramatic than usual because the contrast with everywhere else is staggering.

If you haven't booked a May trip, now's the time. $64 lift tickets, no parking reservations required, and spring-skiing vibes that are hard to beat.

The Vail Hangover

Speaking of everywhere else: Vail Resorts dropped updated season metrics last Wednesday, and they're exactly as ugly as you'd expect.

Skier visits: down 14.9% through April 19. That's worse than the 12% decline reported through March 1 -- the season didn't recover, it accelerated downward. Rocky Mountain properties specifically saw a 25% drop in local visitation. A quarter of their local skiers just... didn't show up.

But the number that should worry Vail shareholders isn't about this season. It's about next season.

Through the April 12 spring sales deadline, Epic Pass sales for 2026-27 showed a "moderate decline" in units and a "slight decline" in sales dollars. In Vail corporate-speak, "moderate decline" means "enough to mention on an investor call." That's notable because pass sales are supposed to be weather-proof -- people buy passes in spring for the following winter, usually on momentum and habit. If a bad snow year can crack that habit, Vail's entire financial model (lock in revenue early, guarantee cash flow regardless of conditions) starts looking shakier.

The stock is down 21% over six months. The antitrust lawsuit is still looming. And now they're selling fewer passes at lower prices into a season that doesn't exist yet.

This is the part of the cycle where someone at Vail HQ suggests another price increase to make up the difference. And then we get to do this all over again.

Prediction Markets Update

We've got three markets still pending from this weekend's Utah storm:

• Alta Apr 26-28 (line: 9") -- Forecasts called for 10-16". Storm was hitting on closing day. We'll check actuals midweek.
• Snowbird Apr 26-28 (line: 9") -- Same storm, same window. 9-15" forecast.
• Brighton Apr 26-28 (line: 8") -- 9-14" forecast.

All three look like potential OVERs based on pre-storm forecasts, which would extend the pattern we've seen all season: when it does snow in late spring, it tends to overperform against conservative late-season lines. We resolved Big Sky (10" vs 6" line, OVER) and Jackson Hole (~8" vs 4.5" line, OVER) from last week's storm earlier.

Check the updated results on our predictions page once we finalize the numbers.

The Mammoth Season Total Market

One more: our Mammoth Season Total market closes May 15. With 46 inches already this month and more storms possible, this one's getting interesting. Keep an eye on it.

What to Watch This Week

• Monday-Friday: A-Basin and Copper's final week. $39 and $49 tickets, respectively. Go.
• Friday May 1: Copper Mountain's closing party -- after-hours laps until 7 PM with DJ at the Aerie.
• Saturday May 3: A-Basin and Copper close. Colorado goes dark.
• Midweek: We'll resolve the Alta/Snowbird/Brighton prediction markets once storm totals are official.
• Ongoing: Mammoth keeps racking up inches. Killington keeps fighting. Timberline keeps dreaming of July.

The Takeaway

We knew this season was historically bad. We've written about it approximately one million times. But there's something different about watching the map go blank in real-time. Last month we had 23 resorts. Then 15. Now 7. Next week, 5. By Memorial Day, it'll be Mammoth, Killington, and Timberline -- three dots on a continent.

Enjoy the last week of Colorado skiing. It's been a rough one, but the mountains will be back. And if the Super El Niño forecasts hold, next season could be the redemption arc this sport desperately needs.

See you on the hill. ❄️