52.6 Million Visits and a Whole Lot of Regret: The 2025-26 Season by the Numbers

The National Ski Areas Association dropped the numbers yesterday, and they're brutal.

52.6 million skier visits across nearly 500 U.S. ski areas. Down 14% from last year. Down 9 million visits. Ranked 32nd out of 48 seasons on record.

One year ago, the industry was celebrating its second-best season ever -- 61.5 million visits, champagne flowing, pass sales through the roof. Twelve months later, we're staring at the second-largest annual decline in the history of American skiing.

"Few seasons demonstrate as clearly as this one how dependent our industry remains on regional weather patterns," said NSAA President Michael Reitzell, in what might be the understatement of the decade.

Let's dig into what actually happened.

The West Collapsed

The Rocky Mountain region -- Colorado, Utah, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, New Mexico -- logged 20.1 million visits. That's down from 26.5 million last year. A 24% freefall. For context, the Rockies hit a record 27.9 million just two seasons ago.

The Pacific regions (California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona) combined for 8.9 million, down from 12.3 million. A 28% drop.

Average national snowfall? 112 inches -- 33% below the 10-year average of 169 inches and the lowest in over a decade. Colorado's snowpack hit its worst level since 1941. The Sierra went from feast to famine, crashing from 75% of normal early-season to 15% by spring.

It wasn't just bad. It was historically, generationally bad.

The East Saved the Season (Relatively)

Here's the part nobody predicted: the Northeast and Southeast both posted their second-best seasons of the last decade.

• Northeast: 12.9 million visits (up from 12.5M)
• Southeast: 4.8 million visits (up from 4.4M)
• Midwest: 5.8 million visits (held steady)

While the West was melting, the East had an early start, consistent snowfall, and cold temperatures that kept snowmaking guns blasting. Jay Peak, Killington, Sugarloaf -- they ran full seasons while Colorado resorts were skiing on 8% terrain and closing weeks early.

The irony? A survey earlier this season found that 70% of Western skiers said they still wouldn't fly east to ski, even with the conditions flipped upside down. Pride before powder.

The Vail Confirmation

Vail Resorts' numbers told the same story, just louder. Skier visits to their 37 North American resorts fell 14.9% -- and their Rocky Mountain properties (Vail, Beaver Creek, Breckenridge, Keystone, Park City, Crested Butte) got hit hardest at -25%.

CEO Rob Katz called it "one of the most challenging winters in history." Revenue data:

• Lift revenue: -5.6% (passes cushioned the blow)
• Ski school: -12%
• Dining: -11.7%

The lift revenue number is the fascinating one. Down only 5.6% despite a 15% drop in bodies, because Vail had already collected most of its money before the first flake fell. That's the pass model working exactly as designed -- it immunizes the company from bad winters. Skiers absorb the risk.

But that insurance policy might be fraying. Katz warned of a "moderate decline" in spring Epic Pass sales for 2026-27. After a winter like this, can you blame anyone for being hesitant to lock in $1,089 sight unseen?

What $569 Million Buys You

Despite the carnage, the industry kept investing. $569.3 million in capital expenditures, including 45 brand-new lifts and 52 upgraded ones. That's $22.24 reinvested per skier visit.

Monarch -- tiny, independent, debt-free Monarch -- is the poster child for doing it right. Their new No Name expansion (10 runs, 377 acres, new triple chair) drove record season pass sales and their busiest day ever. Net income was third-highest in 24 years of ownership, despite the drought.

"More than we paid for the place," owner Bob Nicolls told the Colorado Sun. That's a flex.

The lesson: invest in the product, and skiers will show up even in the worst winters. Especially if you're not charging $1,089 for access.

The Pass Plateau

Season passes accounted for 49% of all visits -- essentially flat from last year, after years of steady growth. Daily and multi-day tickets dropped to 31%.

The NSAA's take: "Season pass usage has begun to stabilize over the past two seasons, signaling a maturing market."

Translation: the pass land grab is over. Everyone who's going to buy a mega-pass already has one. The question now isn't growth -- it's retention. And after a winter like 2025-26, retention is an open question.

Daily ticket sales, meanwhile, are in long-term freefall -- from 51% of visits a decade ago to 31% today. The casual skier who shows up on a whim and pays $200+ at the window is a vanishing species.

What Our Prediction Markets Told Us

We ran 37 prediction markets this season, tracking individual storm snowfall totals across our resort network. Now that the dust (snow?) has settled, the results tell their own story.

The scoreboard: 18 overs, 16 unders, 3 pushes.

Early season, the unders dominated. Forecast models and our O/U lines were set based on historical averages that assumed, well, a normal winter. The drought made those lines look generous. Storm after storm underperformed -- Vail getting 6" against an 8" line, Winter Park hitting 8" against 9", Sierra markets getting absolutely zeroed out when promised storms evaporated.

Then the script flipped in April. Late-season storms hit harder than anyone expected:

• Crystal Mountain: 54.7" actual vs. 28" line (the PNW doing PNW things)
• Alta April Fools Storm: 30" actual vs. 7" line (a 4x blowout)
• Jackson Hole April Fools: 23" vs. 8" (the Tetons showed up late)
• Palisades Tahoe: 27" actual vs. 10" line (the Sierra's last gasp)

The biggest miss in the other direction? Colorado statewide snowpack recovery: 27" actual vs. 75" line. We set that market hoping for a March miracle. It never came.

The takeaway: in a drought year, models are optimistic early and get caught off-guard late. The atmosphere doesn't read forecasts -- it just does what it wants, when it wants.

Operating Days Didn't Crater (Thanks, Snowmaking)

Here's a quietly remarkable stat: despite snowfall falling 33% below average, operating days nationally declined "only modestly" -- hovering around 110 days.

That's snowmaking at work. The East has been doing this for decades. The West is catching up fast. When natural snow fails, the industry's $569 million in capital investment buys a lot of compressors and snow guns.

It doesn't buy the same experience, though. Nobody flies from Dallas to ski man-made snow on a 200-foot vertical strip at Vail. Operating days are a vanity metric if the terrain you're operating on has shrunk to 8% of the mountain.

Colorado: Still Waiting

Colorado won't release its state-level visitation data until next month, but the math isn't pretty. After posting 13.8 million visits last year -- the third-busiest season in state history, extending a streak of four consecutive record-breaking years -- expectations are for a drop below 11 million.

And right now, as of this writing, Colorado is getting buried by a massive May storm. Bear Lake has 20+ inches. Cameron Pass has 14. Rabbit Ears has 13. Denver got nearly a foot.

Every resort in the state is closed except A-Basin, which reopens May 8-10 for a three-day farewell.

The cruelest May in skiing history just keeps going.

Looking Ahead: The El Niño Question

There's a shimmer of hope on the horizon. Climate models are increasingly pointing toward a strong El Niño developing for the 2026-27 winter, which historically correlates with above-average snowfall in the southern Rockies, Sierra, and Cascades.

The NSAA is banking on it. "We've seen time and again that a lower-snow season is often followed by a strong rebound," Reitzell said.

History supports that. The industry has bounced back from every down year. But this one hit different -- the antitrust lawsuits, 2,000 ski instructors suing Vail, New Hampshire investigating pass sales tax, Alterra's CEO stepping down, pass price fatigue, the worst snowpack in 85 years.

The numbers will probably recover. The question is whether skier trust will recover with them -- or whether the 52.6 million who did show up this year started asking harder questions about what they're actually paying for.

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Data sources: NSAA preliminary 2025-26 report, SAM Magazine, Colorado Sun, Vail Resorts end-of-season update, SnowRadar Prediction Markets.