Vail Just Confirmed What Everyone Already Knew: This Was a Catastrophe

We've been writing about how bad this season was since January. We've tracked the early closures, run the statistical autopsy, and watched Colorado's snowpack hit levels not seen since 1941.

But now there are actual numbers. And they're worse than expected.

The Numbers

Vail Resorts -- the world's largest ski company, operator of 42 resorts across three continents -- released its season-to-date metrics through April 19 on Wednesday. Here's the damage:

• Skier visits: down 14.9% across North American resorts
• Rocky Mountain visitation: down 25% -- a quarter of all skier traffic, gone
• Lift revenue: down 5.6%
• Ski school revenue: down 12%
• Dining revenue: down 11.7%
• Retail revenue: down 6.6%

CEO Rob Katz called it "one of the most challenging winters in history across the western U.S." Which, coming from a guy whose job is to sell optimism to investors, is about as close to "we're cooked" as you'll ever hear.

The 25% Rocky Mountain decline is the number that jumps off the page. These aren't fringe resorts. This is Vail, Breckenridge, Park City, Beaver Creek, Keystone, Crested Butte -- the biggest names in American skiing. A quarter of their visitors simply didn't show up.

The Epic Pass Cushion

Here's the thing that probably saved Vail from a full meltdown: the Epic Pass model.

Lift revenue dropped 5.6% while skier visits dropped 14.9%. That gap is the pass model at work. When you've already sold millions of passes in the spring, the revenue is locked in before the first flake falls. Bad snow can crush day-ticket sales and dining and lessons, but it can't claw back the pass revenue.

It's a financial airbag. And this season, it deployed.

But there's a crack forming. Vail disclosed that spring pass sales for the 2026-27 season -- the early-bird window that just closed April 12 -- showed "a moderate decline in units and a slight decline in dollars." Katz waved it off as early-cycle noise, but the implication is clear: some pass holders didn't hit their break-even point this year, and they're hesitating to re-up.

If you bought a $979 Epic Pass last spring and got six mediocre days in before your home mountain closed early... would you buy again?

It's Not Just Vail

Brundage Mountain in Idaho reported skier visits down approximately 15%. Whitefish in Montana was down 8% -- and that was their fifth-busiest season ever, which tells you how much the sport has grown in the Northern Rockies that a down year is still historically strong.

The full industry data won't land until Colorado Ski Country USA releases its season totals in June. Last year: 13.8 million visits, the third-highest ever. This year? Industry sources are privately floating numbers below 10 million for Colorado alone. If that holds, it would be the worst season since the mid-2010s.

This Weekend: The Next Wave of Closures

And now the lights are going out.

This Sunday, April 26, marks the biggest single closing day since the mass closure weekend on April 5-6. Here's who's turning off the lifts:

• Alta -- 84 years of continuous operation, closing Sunday
• Big Sky -- Closing Sunday after a bonus-weekends-only schedule. Pond skim, Tinashe DJ set, the works
• Loveland -- Colorado's last holdout on the I-70 corridor
• Alyeska -- Alaska's flagship, done for the year
• Crystal Mountain -- Washington's biggest, final weekend

After Sunday, here's what's left in the entire American West:

Nine resorts. In a region that typically has 30+ running into May. That's the 2025-26 season.

The Storm That Nobody Ordered

And here's where the season delivers one final plot twist.

A spring storm is barreling into the Wasatch Range this weekend. Our multi-model forecasts show:

• Alta: 7-12 inches (GFS bullish, ECMWF conservative)
• Snowbird: 7-12 inches
• Brighton: 5-11 inches

Peak snowfall hits Saturday night into Sunday. That's literally closing day for Alta.

We've created three new prediction markets for this storm:

• Alta "Last Stand" -- O/U 9 inches
• Snowbird "Spring Send-Off" -- O/U 9 inches
• Brighton "Late April Surprise" -- O/U 8 inches

The irony of Alta potentially getting a foot of snow on its closing day -- after a season where Colorado resorts couldn't buy a decent storm -- is almost too perfect. If you've been tracking our prediction markets all season, you know the unders have been crushing it (62% of our resolved markets landed under the line). But late-season storms have been the exception -- the April Fools' system buried Palisades under 27 inches against a 10-inch line.

What Happens Next

The ski industry is about to enter its longest, most anxious offseason.

Pass sales are soft. Consumer confidence is rattled. The antitrust lawsuit against Vail and Alterra is grinding forward. Epic is up 37% to $1,089 for next year. Ikon is up 40% to $1,399. At those prices, you need a good season just to break even.

And the climate question -- the one the industry has spent decades avoiding -- is no longer avoidable. Colorado's snowpack hit 24% of normal. Utah went from 75% to 15% in a month. The worst Western snow season in 50 years wasn't a fluke. It was a preview.

Katz guided EBITDA to the low end of their forecast range. Translation: as bad as they warned investors it could get.

The next test isn't whether it snows next year. It's whether skiers believe it will. Because the Epic Pass model only works if people commit in the spring, months before anyone knows what winter holds. After a year like this, that's a harder sell.

If you're still skiing this weekend -- Alta at dawn, Loveland for one last lap, Big Sky for the pond skim -- enjoy it. It's been one hell of a season. Not the good kind. But one we won't forget.

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