The Season in Numbers: A Statistical Autopsy of 2025-26

Every year on April 1, surveyors hike into the Sierra Nevada, plunge a hollow tube into the snowpack, and measure how much water the mountains are holding. It's the most important single measurement in western water management -- the benchmark that tells 40 million people downstream how much water they'll have this summer.

Today, those surveyors found almost nothing.

California's Sierra snowpack measured 18% of average. Colorado sits at roughly 24-30% of normal, depending on which basin you measure -- the lowest since comprehensive records began in the early 1980s, and rivaling the catastrophic drought years of 1977 and 1981. Denver declared a Stage 1 drought for the first time since 2013.

This is the number that seals it. The 2025-26 ski season wasn't just bad. It was historically, measurably, record-settingly terrible across most of the West.

But numbers tell the story better than adjectives. So here's the full statistical autopsy.

The Snowpack: A Savings Account That's Empty

The April 1 snowpack measurement is supposed to represent peak snow -- the moment the mountains are holding the most frozen water before spring melt begins. Think of it as checking your savings account balance right before you need to start paying rent.

This year, the rent is due and the account is overdrawn.

Colorado:

• Statewide snowpack: ~30% of normal (some basins as low as 24%)
• Worst April 1 reading since at least the early 1980s
• Southern Colorado River Basin: less than one-third of normal
• The snowpack peaked weeks early, then a March heatwave running 20-30 degrees above average accelerated the melt
• CU Boulder hydrologist Ben Livneh: the inflow forecasts for reservoirs "fall among the lowest we've seen" since detailed measurements began

California:

• Sierra snowpack: 18% of average on April 1
• Peaked on February 25 at 73% -- then collapsed
• March temperatures shattered monthly records, accelerating the melt by a month or more
• More precipitation fell as rain instead of snow -- a direct climate change fingerprint
• Water scientist Peter Gleick: "This particular year is as clear an indication of the influence of climate change as anything we've seen"

The rest of the West:

• Utah: Alta led the state with ~260 inches -- roughly half its annual average
• Idaho: Multiple SNOTEL stations recorded all-time lows
• New Mexico: Several basins below 15% of normal

The Body Count: 60+ Resorts Gone

We've been tracking early closures since mid-March, and the final tally is staggering.

By the numbers:

• 60+ Western U.S. ski areas closed earlier than planned or never opened at all
• 10 states affected: Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Wyoming
• At least 8 resorts never turned a single lift all winter: Magic Mountain (ID), Bald Mountain (ID), Cottonwood Butte (ID), Blizzard Mountain (ID), Bear Paw (MT), Elko Snowbowl (NV), Cooper Spur (OR), Mt. Lemmon (AZ)
• March 22 was the single deadliest day -- at least 20 resorts closed that weekend alone

The state-by-state breakdown reads like a casualty report:

• California: 10+ areas closed or closing early, including Sierra-at-Tahoe, Dodge Ridge, Homewood, Mountain High, Mt. Shasta, and Badger Pass. Only 7 Tahoe-area resorts remain open.
• Colorado: 10+ early closures, including Ski Cooper, Powderhorn, Sunlight, Monarch, Howelsen Hill, Cuchara, Kendall Mountain. Lake City never operated.
• Idaho: The hardest-hit state by percentage. 9 areas closed or never opened. Pebble Creek managed just 54 inches all season.
• New Mexico: 7 areas closed early -- Angel Fire, Ski Apache, Pajarito, Red River, Sandia Peak, Sipapu, Ski Santa Fe. Taos closed with just 76 inches (average: 300+).
• Utah: Nordic Valley, Cherry Peak, Eagle Point, Snowbasin all gone. Beaver Mountain closed March 29.
• Oregon: Hoodoo, Willamette Pass, Mt. Hood Skibowl, Mt. Ashland -- all sitting idle.

The Financial Wreckage

Ski resorts run on a brutal economic model: spend all summer building infrastructure, hire in November, pray for snow, make your money in 4-5 months. When the snow doesn't come, there's no Plan B.

Vail Resorts (the industry bellwether):

• Skier visits: down 11.9% through early March, accelerating to down 20% in the most recent reporting period
• Ski resort net revenue: down $53.2 million (4.7%)
• Lift revenue: down 1.8% (cushioned by the pass model)
• Ski school revenue: down 14.9%
• Dining revenue: down 15.9%
• Retail/rental revenue: down 6.0%
• CEO Rob Katz called it "the most challenging winter we have ever seen"

Colorado mountain towns:

• Spring break bookings: down 24.9% for March arrivals (Inntopia data)
• February bookings for Feb-July: down 19.4%
• Back Bowls at Vail and Imperial Express at Breckenridge had their latest openings on record
• Most Colorado resorts operated with only 70-80% of skiable acreage through February

The pass model's stress test:

• 75% of Vail's visits now come from passholders (up from 55% a decade ago)
• Epic Pass: $1,089 for 2026-27 (+37% over 5 years)
• Ikon Pass: $1,399 (+40% over 5 years)
• Overall inflation in the same period: ~18%
• Combined Vail + Alterra mega-pass market share: 93.5%
• A class-action antitrust lawsuit was filed in March alleging deliberate price inflation

The Winners: A Very Short List

Not everywhere suffered. The 2025-26 season was a tale of two countries.

The Pacific Northwest:

• Mt. Baker: One of the few bright spots in the West, with a 150" base into April and the PNW's relentless storm pattern delivering through spring
• Stevens Pass: 33.5 inches from a single March storm (our prediction market had the O/U at 30)
• Crystal Mountain: 54.7 inches from that same PNW mega storm -- nearly double our 28-inch line
• Whistler Blackcomb: Running 90% of terrain, consistently the biggest operating footprint in North America

The Northeast:

• Jay Peak, VT: 384+ inches (32 feet) of snowfall -- surpassing the 347-inch annual average and flirting with a record season
• The entire Northeast benefited from persistent lake-effect and nor'easter patterns while the West baked
• Vail's Eastern resorts partially offset Western losses

The survivors still spinning (as of April 1):

• A-Basin, Loveland, Copper Mountain (CO) -- grinding into spring
• Vail, Breckenridge, Winter Park (CO) -- with a fresh storm hitting today
• Alta, Snowbird, Brighton, Solitude (UT) -- Cottonwood Canyon holding on
• Jackson Hole, Grand Targhee (WY) -- the bright spots of the interior West
• Mammoth (CA) -- the high-elevation fortress, running on altitude and stubbornness

Our Prediction Markets: The Scorecard

We launched SnowRadar Predictions this season to let you bet (with points, not money) on storm snowfall totals. Here's how the models -- and the crowd -- did.

13 markets resolved:

• Over hit 5 times (38%)
• Under hit 8 times (62%)

The unders dominated, which makes sense -- models and forecasters consistently over-predicted snowfall in a season where storms underdelivered. The most dramatic results:

• Crystal Mountain PNW Mega Storm: Line 28", actual 54.7". The biggest over of the season. That storm was a monster.
• Stevens Pass PNW Mega Storm: Line 30", actual 33.5". The PNW delivered.
• Aspen Feb Storm: Line 10", actual 10". Push -- hit the line exactly, scored as under.
• Sierra Hail Mary markets (4): All four resolved at 0 inches. The late-March Sierra storm never materialized. Nature doesn't do charity.

4 new markets open today for the April 1-3 Colorado storm now hitting the state. Go make your calls →

The Climate Numbers

The 2025-26 season will be studied by climate scientists for years. A few data points that go beyond skiing:

• Colorado temperatures through February: 9 degrees above normal -- warmest winter on record
• March temperatures across the West: 20-30 degrees above average in some areas
• California's snowpack peaked 5-6 weeks early (Feb 25 vs. typical April 1-10)
• More precipitation fell as rain vs. snow -- total precip in California was roughly average, but the snow fraction collapsed
• Denver's Stage 1 drought: first since 2013
• La Nina, which was supposed to deliver a powder year, fizzled by January
• El Nino signals are developing for 2026-27 -- potentially back-to-back tough winters for parts of the West

CU Boulder's Livneh noted that unlike previous drought years (1977, 1981), this year was also exceptionally warm -- meaning the snow that did fall melted faster. It's not just a drought. It's a drought plus a heat wave, compounding the damage in ways the mountains haven't seen before.

The Final Number

Here's the stat I keep coming back to.

Taos Ski Valley received 76 inches of snow this season. Their annual average is over 300 inches.

Seventy-six inches. That's what some East Coast resorts get in a good January. Taos -- a legendary New Mexico powder destination -- got less snow in an entire season than Stowe gets in two months.

That's the 2025-26 season in one number.

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But hey -- there's a storm hitting Colorado right now. Winter weather advisories across the mountains, 8-24 inches expected on the peaks, and our prediction markets are open for the April 1-3 Colorado Spring Storm. Maybe the season gets one last good day before the lights go out.

Check the multi-model forecast for your resort, and if you're heading out this week -- enjoy every turn. The mountains earned it.