The Two-Speed Season: Baker Gets 2 Feet While Tahoe Loses 60% of Its Snowpack

Two things happened yesterday that perfectly sum up the 2025-26 ski season.

In Washington state, Mt. Baker picked up the first inches of what forecasters are calling an 18-25 inch storm cycle -- a midweek dump that'll keep the legendary Cascades resort skiing deep into spring. Stevens Pass is expecting 5-8 inches. Whistler Blackcomb, already running 90% of North America's largest ski area, is getting another 10-13 inches on top.

Meanwhile, 800 miles south, Palisades Tahoe -- the self-proclaimed "Spring Skiing Capital of the World" -- announced it's closing a full month early. The resort that was targeting Memorial Day is now "targeting late April." The spring skiing capital can't make it to spring.

This is the two-speed season. And the data behind it is wild.

The Tahoe Snowpack Collapse

Here's the stat that stopped me cold (no pun intended): Tahoe's snowpack peaked at 75% of the median just four weeks ago. Today, it's at 15%.

That's not a typo. Sixty percent of the Sierra snowpack -- gone in 28 days.

Bryan Allegretto, California forecaster for OpenSnow, called it a crash. "That snow has melted at a record pace here in the month of March," he told KQED. "So that is really what is shutting everyone down early."

The cause? March temperatures running 9 degrees above average across the Sierra. Not 2-3 degrees. Nine. That's not a warm spell -- that's a different climate zone showing up uninvited.

The casualty list since our Monday piece keeps growing:

• Palisades Tahoe -- targeting late April (was Memorial Day)
• Taos -- closing March 29 (just 76 inches all season -- they average 300+)
• Steamboat -- began phased closing, moving snow from the big air jump to keep remaining runs alive
• Big Bear -- done today, March 25
• Monarch Mountain -- closing March 29
• Diamond Peak -- closing March 29
• Sundance -- closing March 28
• Beaver Mountain, Powder Mountain -- both closing March 29

And that's just this week.

Meanwhile, in the Pacific Northwest...

While California and Colorado write obituaries, the PNW is living its best life.

Mt. Baker has been in a different zip code all season. The Cascades sit in the direct path of the Pacific jet stream, and this year that jet stream has been absolutely relentless -- delivering storm after storm while a persistent high-pressure ridge parks over California and the interior West like a bouncer at a club.

This week's storm is the latest example. Forecasters are calling for:

• Mt. Baker: 18-25 inches by Thursday
• Whistler Blackcomb: 10-13 inches
• Stevens Pass: 5-8 inches
• Crystal Mountain: 4-6 inches
• Timberline: 5-8 inches

Baker starts with dense snow Tuesday, then transitions to lighter, higher-quality stuff Wednesday into Thursday. By Friday the sun comes out, the midweek refresh settles, and you've got a gorgeous weekend setup.

This isn't an anomaly. Western Canada has had frequent 5-15cm top-ups all month, keeping most BC and Alberta resorts fully operational. Whistler has 90% of its terrain open. Baker is running full operations. Crystal and Stevens are in great shape.

The contrast with Tahoe -- where half the resorts are already closed and the snowpack has cratered -- could not be more stark.

The Weather Pattern That Split the West

So why is Baker getting buried while Tahoe burns? It comes down to one thing: ridge position.

All winter, a persistent upper-level ridge has been anchored over the eastern Pacific, roughly between California and Hawaii. This ridge acts like a wall, deflecting storms northward. The jet stream hits the ridge and gets shunted into British Columbia and Washington -- delivering storm after storm to the Cascades and Coast Range -- while California, Nevada, Colorado, and the interior Rockies bake under clear skies and sinking air.

This pattern isn't new. It's a textbook El Niño signature, and forecasters flagged it before the season even started. What they maybe didn't predict was how persistent it would be. Most El Niño winters see the ridge break down a few times, letting some storms sneak through to California. This year? The ridge has been an absolute fortress since mid-January.

The result is a season where geography is everything. If you're north of about the 47th parallel (roughly the Washington-Oregon border), you're having a solid winter. If you're south of it, you're having one of the worst in decades.

Colorado -- sitting at 40°N and far from the Pacific moisture source -- got hammered from both sides. The ridge blocked Pacific storms, and the few systems that did make it east fell apart before delivering meaningful snow. The state's snowpack is hovering around 43-44% of median, the lowest since 1986.

The Survivors: Who's Left Standing?

Not everyone below the 47th parallel is dead. A few resorts are thriving (or at least surviving) thanks to elevation, aspect, or sheer stubbornness:

Snowbird, UT -- Base depth above 80 inches. "There has not been talk of closing early yet," a spokesperson told the Salt Lake Tribune. Plazapalooza starts this weekend (March 27) with live music every Friday through Sunday through May 25. Snowbird's high elevation (summit at 11,000') and deep base make it the best bet in the Intermountain West.

Alta, UT -- 260 inches for the season. That's only half its average (which says a lot about this year), but it's enough to keep skiing into late April. The Cottonwood Canyons' high elevation is saving them where lower Utah resorts have already folded.

Mammoth Mountain, CA -- Still targeting Memorial Day. At 11,053 feet, Mammoth sits above the melt zone that destroyed lower Tahoe resorts. But even Mammoth is feeling the heat -- the ECMWF 45-day forecast shows only about 1.5 inches of liquid equivalent through April. They'll survive on their existing base, but fresh snow is unlikely.

A-Basin, CO -- The perennial last-one-standing in Colorado, targeting June 14. If any resort below 47°N makes it to June, it'll be A-Basin.

The Big Colorado Resorts -- Vail (April 19), Aspen Mountain (April 19), Snowmass (April 11), Beaver Creek (April 12), Steamboat (April 12, with phased closings before that). Winter Park, Breckenridge, Copper, and Loveland are all TBD -- which in this context means "we're hoping but not promising."

The Hail Mary: A Late-Season Storm?

Here's the one piece of hope: models are showing colder temperatures rolling into the Sierra starting next week, with "significant snowfall possible" between March 31 and April 3.

Before you get too excited, Allegretto put it in perspective: "We are gonna get colder next week -- we may even see some measurable snowfall. But it's not typical to have giant dumps in April."

Translation: it might slow the melting and help resorts stretch to their revised closing dates, but it's not going to save the season. A few inches in early April isn't going to rebuild a snowpack that lost 60% in March.

Still -- if you're planning a last-chance trip to Tahoe, that March 31 - April 3 window might be the move. Sugar Bowl (closing April 12), Northstar (April 12), and Heavenly (April 21) are all banking on it.

What This Means for Next Year

Here's the thing about El Niño years: they end. The current pattern is expected to weaken through summer 2026, and early signals for next winter point toward neutral or La Niña conditions -- which historically favor the interior West, the Rockies, and the Sierra.

The last time the West had a season this bad followed by a pattern flip, the rebound was enormous. The 2014-15 season was a historically bad El Niño year for California, and the 2016-17 La Niña season that followed delivered Mammoth's snowiest winter ever and left Squaw Valley (now Palisades) skiing into July.

So if you're buying a season pass for 2026-27 -- and we broke down all your options last week -- there's reason for optimism. The odds favor a much better winter across the entire West.

But that's next year. Right now, the two-speed season has one speed that still works: the Pacific Northwest.

The Play

If you can swing it, here's the move for late March and April:

1. This week: Baker is getting 2 feet. If you're within driving distance of the North Cascades, go. Thursday looks like the day -- snow quality improves and wind backs off.

2. Next week (Mar 31 - Apr 3): The Sierra cold snap. Watch the forecasts closely. If it materializes, Mammoth and the remaining Tahoe resorts will have their best conditions in a month.

3. April weekends: Snowbird's Plazapalooza is the vibe. Live music, spring laps, the longest-running season in Utah. Alta's Earth Day event (April 12) is worth the trip.

4. Late April - May: Mammoth, Snowbird, and maybe A-Basin are your only options. Mammoth's spring scene (DJs at Canyon Lodge, $60-ish tickets, bluebird days) is genuinely fun even in a bad snow year.

Check our multi-model forecast for the latest storm tracking, and our resort pages for live conditions. The season isn't over -- it just moved north.