Week Ahead: California Is Melting, Minnesota Is Buried, and the Season Is Splitting in Half

Here's what's happening in skiing right now: California resorts are shutting down because it's too hot, Minnesota just got buried under a foot of snow, and Washington state is alternating between powder days and flood warnings. Meanwhile, Vail Resorts told investors their visitors are down 12% and the CEO is calling this a "worst-case weather scenario."

It's March 16th and the 2025-26 ski season is officially having an identity crisis. Let's break it all down.

California: The Worst March Heatwave in State History

This is the big one. If you have a ski trip to California this week -- cancel it. Seriously.

Meteorologist Colin McCarthy (@US_Stormwatch) is calling this "among the most extraordinary heatwaves the United States has ever seen," and the numbers back him up. Every California ski resort's base area will hit 70°F+ for at least four straight days this week. Palm Springs is forecast to hit 111°F on Friday. In March.

The casualties are already piling up:

• Mt. Shasta Ski Park -- closed for the season after just 55 operating days (short of its 60-day season pass guarantee)
• Dodge Ridge -- closed Sunday "due to unseasonably warm conditions," weeks ahead of its projected April 12 closing date
• Mountain High -- season appears to be over

And those are just the early dominos. McCarthy predicts most California resorts below 8,000 feet will have no snow left by next weekend. That's not gradual spring melt -- that's the snowpack getting vaporized in a week.

The higher-elevation holdouts -- Mammoth Mountain, Palisades Tahoe -- are hanging on for now, but even Mammoth could lose its Eagle base area to the warmth. Statewide snowpack is sitting at less than half of the seasonal average for mid-March. In Northern California, it's at 28% of normal.

For SnowRadar's prediction market watchers: our Mammoth season total market asked whether Mammoth would finish above 300 inches. Currently at 243" with this heatwave bearing down... that's looking increasingly unlikely.

Minnesota: Meanwhile, on the Other Side of the Country

In what feels like a weather report from a parallel universe, Minnesota just got absolutely hammered by a major blizzard.

The weekend storm dropped over a foot of snow across southeastern Minnesota, with blizzard conditions -- heavy snow plus strong winds -- persisting into Monday morning. The heaviest band fell about 50-75 miles south of the Twin Cities.

It's the kind of storm that would have Colorado and California resorts throwing parades. Instead, it hit a state where most ski areas are already thinking about closing for the season. The cruel irony of 2026: the snow is falling, just not where the ski industry needs it most.

PNW: The Storm Machine Keeps Running

Last week we told you the Pacific Northwest was about to get buried. It delivered -- and then some.

The numbers from the March 10-15 storm cycle are eye-popping:

• Crystal Mountain -- 34 inches in the past 72 hours, snowpack at 105 inches (87% of normal). Crystal is having the best stretch of the season.
• Stevens Pass -- 30 inches in 72 hours, snowpack at 77 inches. Still cranking.
• Mt. Baker -- 14 inches in 72 hours. Not as dramatic but the legendary mountain keeps grinding.

But here's the catch: the PNW is now dealing with a warm-up of its own. Today's forecast at all three resorts? Rain. Heavy rain at Baker, rain before noon at Crystal, rain before 2pm at Stevens. Snow levels are rising and rivers are running high. The National Weather Service issued hydrologic outlooks warning of potential flooding on Cascade rivers.

The next few days look like a typical PNW late-season pattern -- some snow at the top, rain lower down, and the cycle continues. About 4-6 inches expected at Crystal and Baker over the next 5 days. Stevens could see another 4 inches. Not nothing, but the mega-storm days are behind us for now.

Vail Resorts: "Worst-Case Weather Scenario"

The financial side of this drought-plagued season got some hard numbers last week. Vail Resorts reported that skier visits at their U.S. resorts are down 11.9% through March 1 compared to last winter.

CEO Rob Katz told investors this is the "most difficult weather environment in the Rockies we have ever seen" -- and the numbers confirm it. Lift revenue declined 3.6%, but the pain is worse in supporting businesses: ski school revenue dropped 8.2%, and dining revenue fell 8.6%. When people aren't showing up, they're also not eating, taking lessons, or renting gear.

Katz optimistically called the lift revenue decline "modest," which is a word you use when you're trying to reassure shareholders, not when you're describing how the season feels. Colorado's statewide snowpack is at 63% of median -- the worst since 1987.

The Cross-Country Crisis

An excellent piece from KUER/NPR published today highlights something that doesn't get enough attention: the snow drought is hitting cross-country ski areas even harder than downhill resorts.

At the Eldora Nordic Center near Boulder, staff are literally shoveling snow from the woods onto trails to keep them skiable. They have to limit access to pass holders only, and on one recent February morning, skiing was only available until 11am -- after that, all hands were on deck moving snow.

The core problem: cross-country areas operate on smaller margins, can't invest in massive snowmaking infrastructure, and don't have the option of pushing terrain to higher elevations. About 27% of cross-country trail areas have invested in some form of snowmaking, but it's nowhere near the scale of what downhill resorts deploy.

Climate research cited in the piece estimates the average U.S. ski season is already about a week shorter than it was 40-60 years ago. By 2050, it could shrink by another 1-8 weeks depending on emissions trends.

What to Watch This Week

If you're skiing this week:

• Pacific Northwest is your best bet, but bring rain gear for lower elevations
• Colorado/Rockies -- dry, warm pattern continues. Corn snow on south-facing runs by late morning. Groomed is your friend.
• California -- stay home unless you're going to Mammoth or Palisades, and even then, temper expectations
• Northeast -- spring squeeze is hitting hard; check your resort's operating status before driving

Stories we're tracking:

• How many more California resorts close this week (we're expecting at least 2-3 more)
• Whether the Alterra CEO departure (announced March 12) leads to any Ikon pass changes
• Colorado snowpack numbers as we approach the critical April 1 measurement date
• PNW flood risk as warm rain hits a big snowpack

SnowRadar tools for this week:

• Multi-model forecast -- check what GFS, ECMWF, and ICON say about your resort
• Prediction markets -- PNW storm markets locked and waiting for resolution
• NWS Alerts -- flood watches active in Washington
• Freezing level tracker -- critical for figuring out rain/snow lines this week

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The 2025-26 season isn't over, but it's aging fast. Ski what you can, where you can. The mountains aren't going anywhere -- but the snow might be.