The Season That Fell Apart

Let's be honest about what's happening. The 2025-26 Western ski season didn't just underperform -- it collapsed.

California's snowpack is melting at 1% per day. Colorado is tracking toward its worst snowpack since 1977. Ski resorts from Idaho to Utah to the Sierra Nevada are closing weeks, sometimes months, ahead of schedule. Spring break bookings in Colorado mountain towns are down 25%. Vail Resorts told Wall Street that skier visits dropped nearly 12%. And the CEO of Alterra Mountain Company -- the people behind the Ikon Pass and Deer Valley -- just abruptly resigned with no successor named.

Meanwhile, the Northeast is having one of its best seasons in memory. Jay Peak might crack 400 inches. The ski world is split in half, and the Western half is on fire. Literally, in some parts of California.

Here's how the season fell apart, and what it means for the industry.

The Snowpack: A Complete Failure of Winter

The numbers are brutal.

Colorado statewide snowpack sits at roughly 61% of average, making this the worst season since 1977 or 1981, depending on which measurement stations you use. Temperatures through February averaged 9 degrees warmer than normal -- the warmest Colorado winter on record. BoulderCast called it "a complete failure of winter across the West."

California's Sierra snowpack is at about 57% of the April 1 target, and that number is dropping fast. Officials from the Department of Water Resources said this week that snowpack is melting at 1% per day. If the trend continues, the April 1 measurement -- the industry's annual benchmark -- could be the 2nd lowest in recorded history. Northern California is even worse, sitting at about 28% of normal.

The drought.gov March 12 update classified this as a full-blown snow drought across the Western U.S., with conditions comparable to some of the worst water years on record for the Colorado River basin.

There's no sugar-coating this. The mountains didn't get snow. What snow they did get is now disappearing at an alarming rate.

The Body Count: Who's Already Done

It's mid-March and the list of resorts that have already closed for the season -- or will close this week -- is staggering.

California:

• Mt. Shasta Ski Park -- closed after just 55 operating days, short of its 60-day season pass guarantee. Called it a "rapidly deteriorating snowpack."
• Dodge Ridge -- closed March 15 "due to unseasonably warm conditions," weeks ahead of its planned April 12 closing
• Mountain High -- season appears over

The LA Times published satellite imagery showing the Sierra Nevada before and after the March heat wave. The snow just... vanished.

Idaho got hit hard:

• Bogus Basin -- closing March 22, weeks ahead of schedule, after receiving less than half its average season snowfall
• Pebble Creek -- closed three weeks early with just 54 inches of total season snow. (They did convert over 4,100 pounds of potatoes into fries though, so... Idaho.)
• Magic Mountain -- never opened at all this winter. Season passes will roll to 2026-27.
• Bald Mountain, Cottonwood Butte, Snowhaven -- also couldn't open or closed extremely early
• Soldier Mountain -- pulled the plug March 6
• Little Ski Hill -- done March 14

Utah:

• Cherry Peak -- closed March 11
• Nordic Valley -- first Utah resort to close, done in February
• Eagle Point -- ended its season three weeks early
• Multiple other Utah resorts setting April closing dates that would normally stretch into May

And this is just the confirmed list. More closures are coming this week as temperatures stay well above normal.

Vail Resorts: "The Most Challenging Winter We Have Ever Seen"

Vail Resorts CEO Rob Katz didn't mince words on the Q2 earnings call. He called this "the most difficult weather environment in the Rockies we have ever seen." Worse than 2011-12, which was the previous low-water mark.

The numbers:

• Skier visits down 11.9% at U.S. resorts through March 1
• Ski resort net revenue dropped $53.2 million, or 4.7%
• Most Colorado and Utah resorts operating with only 70-80% of skiable acreage through February
• Back Bowls at Vail and Imperial Express at Breckenridge had their latest openings on record

Katz's silver lining? The Epic Pass pre-commitment model. About 75% of Vail's annual visitation now comes from passholders who bought before the season started, up from 55% a decade ago. That's $800-$1,100 per skier locked in regardless of snowfall. The pass model was designed exactly for winters like this one -- and it worked, limiting what Katz called "modest" lift revenue declines despite catastrophic conditions.

The company also pointed to regional diversification as a buffer. While the West cratered, the Northeast had one of its best seasons. Vail's Eastern resorts helped offset some of the Western losses.

Still -- reduced staff hours at Colorado resorts, lower earnings projections, and a stock price that reflects the reality that Mother Nature still has veto power over the ski industry's business model.

Colorado Mountain Towns: Spring Break Is a Ghost Town

The booking data tells a grim story for mountain communities that depend on ski tourism.

According to Inntopia, the booking and marketing platform used by resorts across the country:

• February bookings for February-July arrivals: down 19.4%
• February bookings for March arrivals: down 24.9%
• April arrival bookings: down 42.2%

Steamboat Springs -- one of Colorado's biggest spring break destinations -- reported lodging bookings for March down 10% year over year. Laura Soard from the Steamboat Springs Chamber called it the "biggest anomaly year" for visitation since the pandemic.

The trickle-down is real. Less snow means fewer visitors means less sales tax means tighter budgets for towns that run on winter tourism. Western Slope communities are pivoting to promote off-mountain activities for spring breakers -- hot springs, hiking, mountain biking. That's a nice story, but it doesn't replace the revenue from a packed ski week.

Tom Foley from Inntopia noted that spring break week (March 14-21) is "the least bad-looking period" for Colorado resorts. It's still down, just down less. That's the best spin available.

Alterra's CEO Walks Out

In the middle of all this, Alterra Mountain Company dropped a bombshell: CEO Jared Smith is stepping down at the end of the season.

The timing is... notable. Alterra didn't provide a reason for the departure, and the announcement was unexpected. Smith had been CEO since May 2022, overseeing rapid expansion including the massive Deer Valley project -- more than $400 million in investment, billed as "the largest single-season expansion in ski industry history."

There's no permanent successor. Instead, Alterra's board is establishing an "Office of the CEO" -- an interim leadership committee including representatives from ownership partners KSL Capital Partners and Henry Crown & Company, along with former CEO Rusty Gregory. Smith will "remain available" over the next year.

Read between the lines however you want. A CEO leaving mid-expansion, during the worst season in decades, with no successor lined up, while the Ikon Pass just went on sale at a 5.3% price increase? That's a lot of things happening at once.

For Ikon passholders, the practical impact is probably minimal in the short term. Alterra's $2 billion infrastructure investment isn't going to evaporate. But leadership instability at one of the two companies that basically control American skiing is worth paying attention to.

The Plot Twist: The Northeast Is Thriving

Here's the weird part. While the West falls apart, the Northeast is having a banner season.

Jay Peak in Vermont is approaching 400 inches of total snowfall -- a figure that would place this among the best seasons on record for the region. Stowe has already surpassed several recent seasons' final totals, and March hasn't been kind to it yet. La Niña delivered exactly what it usually delivers to the Northeast: cold temperatures, consistent snow, and deep bases.

Vail Resorts confirmed that their Eastern properties helped offset Western losses. The geographic hedge that both Vail and Alterra have been building -- buying up Northeastern resorts over the past decade -- is paying off exactly as designed.

If you're an East Coast skier reading this, you're probably confused by all the doom and gloom. Your season is great. Enjoy it. The West would like a word with La Niña.

What This Means

A few things are becoming clear:

The pass model works -- for the companies. Seventy-five percent pre-commitment means Vail and Alterra can survive a terrible snow year with "modest" revenue declines instead of catastrophic ones. The risk has been transferred from the corporations to the consumers. You paid $1,089 for your Epic Pass in September. If it snows 50% of normal, that's your problem, not Vail's. (Ikon's refund policy offers some protection here, which is why it matters more than you think.)

Regional diversification is no longer optional. Both major companies are now geographically hedged. When the West dies, the East picks up slack. When the East has a bad year, the West (usually) carries it. This will drive more acquisitions in underrepresented regions.

Small resorts get hit hardest. Magic Mountain Idaho never opened. Bogus Basin is closing weeks early. These places don't have the pass revenue buffer or the geographic diversity. A season like this is existential for small, independent mountains that depend on actual snow and actual visitors.

Climate isn't a future problem. Nine degrees warmer than average in Colorado. Record March heat in California. Snowpack melting at 1% per day. This isn't a projection from a climate model -- it's the current season. The ski industry can diversify and pre-sell passes and build snowmaking infrastructure, but at some point the mountains need snow, and the snow isn't showing up.

And perhaps most importantly: the season isn't over yet. There are still resorts open, still turns to be made, still spring snow possible. March and April have produced miracles before. But this year, the mountains are starting from such a deficit that even a late-season dump would feel more like damage control than salvation.

If you've got a trip planned to a Western resort this spring, call ahead. Check conditions on SnowRadar. And lower your expectations -- but pack your sunscreen, because at least the weather will be nice.

---

We're tracking snowpack, early closures, and resort conditions across all 41 of our covered resorts. Check forecasts, current conditions, and storm predictions on SnowRadar. And if you want to bet on whether Colorado snowpack hits 75% of median by April 1 -- we've got a market for that.